A busy week looms locally, with the highlight likely to be the latest quarterly inflation report on Friday. If it comes in above RBNZ forecasts for a 2.7% annual gain, which might this mean for the path of interest rates? Subscribe or follow for the latest insights, first

While almost every country in the world has been reducing interest rates from multi-decade highs, Japan has been doing the exact opposite. The Japanese economy isn’t as dominant as it once was, while its sharemarket is only 4.8 per cent of world share indices. However, it is critically important in terms of global financial markets,…

Every summer economists, analysts and strategists dust off their crystal balls and confidently predict how the year will play out. Within a few short months, markets have often made fools of them. I’m sceptical of the whole exercise, as will others who’ve been around long enough to know what they don’t know be. Having said…

As 2025 draws to a close, let’s reflect on a challenging, volatile, yet fruitful 12 months for investors. We started the year with Donald Trump being inaugurated as US President for the second time. Investors knew tariffs were on the cards, but his “Liberation Day” announcement in early April was still a shock. World shares…

Predicting investment returns isn’t easy. Nobody can do this with accuracy, regardless of their experience, intellect or resources. However, when the collective crystal ball gazing from some of the world’s leading investment firms is collated, it’s worth a look. US-based Horizon Actuarial has done just that with its annual survey of capital market assumptions. If…

After a very strong period that has seen global sharemarkets hit new highs, volatility has returned. Despite economic activity holding up well, concern over high share prices and the booming AI space has seen optimism turn to caution. Even a better-than-expected earnings release from tech heavyweight NVIDIA couldn’t turn things around. The S&P 500 index…

Last month the NZX 50 index hit a fresh record high, finally surpassing the previous peak from January 2021. It was a long time coming. Other sharemarkets recovered from their post-COVID hangover much more quickly, but we’ve taken almost five years. At first glance, this would all suggest that our market has regained all its…

Labour’s targeted capital gains tax (CGT) announcement last week was interesting. We’re yet to see the detail, but maybe it’s got merit. I was no fan of the proposals we saw back in 2018, after Jacinda Ardern established a high-powered Tax Working Group chaired by the late Sir Michael Cullen. The CGT framework recommended in…

Lower interest rates have been a cause for celebration for many people in recent months. Borrowers and homeowners have seen their costs fall sharply, and there’s more support to come. However, conservative savers with money on term deposit won’t be quite so enthusiastic about slumping interest rates. They were sitting pretty 18 months ago, with…

US credit markets have delivered strong returns this year. Companies have been issuing record amounts of debt, borrowing costs have remained manageable and bond investors have pocketed solid gains. It’s been a golden run. However, in recent weeks cracks have appeared beneath the surface, and the pace at which the problems have emerged is worth…