There has been increasing talk of a US recession in recent weeks, with one major global bank suggesting the odds of this are 60 per cent. It’s certainly possible if harsh tariffs remain in place, although the outlook could brighten quickly if we see further de-escalation. Recessions are an inevitable part of the business cycle,…

A lot of people are frustrated with US President Donald Trump, but there’s one who has a more genuine case than most. That’s Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and it’s not just because Trump wants to fire him. Until recently it looked like Powell and the Fed might’ve done the impossible, or at least the…

It’s a big week for economic data releases in the US, with the jobs report due on Friday, the ISM manufacturing index and core PCE inflation report ahead of that, as well as the preliminary GDP reading for the March quarter. Here in New Zealand, we’ll be watching the latest monthly ANZ Business Outlook survey…

It’s been a very volatile few weeks for investors, and some markets and asset classes have fallen heavily amidst the uncertainty. All declines are different and it’s impossible to say when or where this one ends. However, here are a few suggestions for navigating this one. Resist the urge to panic. One important piece of…

The US market ended the week up 5.7%, which saw it finish 12.7% off its February highs, having been down 18.9% at its weakest point and very close to bear market territory. Most other markets finished the week slightly lower, with the local NZX 50 down 1.7%. Despite last week’s partial tariff backtrack from the…

The last several trading days have been extremely volatile for global markets, with US President Donald Trump unveiling a harsher set of tariffs than expected on “Liberation Day”. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 10.5 per cent in the two days following the initial announcement. We’ve only seen a move like that a…

It was an extremely volatile week for global markets, as “Liberation Day” sent investors into a tailspin. Investors will be watching for signs of further tariff retaliation (or negotiation) this week, while US inflation figures will in focus. Another OCR cut its widely expected here in New Zealand, and on the corporate front the quarterly…

The first quarter of 2025 is behind us and if it’s any guide of things to come, we’re in for an eventful year. The last three months have been punctuated by policy uncertainty, shaky confidence readings and volatile markets. After cheering a strong victory for Donald Trump at last year’s presidential election, investors have turned…

The focal point of this week will be the details of US reciprocal tariffs, which are scheduled to be implemented on Wednesday (April 2). A day later, 25% tariffs on cars imported into the US will take effect. It is unclear whether the reciprocal tariffs will be broad or targeted, but the prospect of added…

Last week’s gross domestic product (GDP) report was comforting, coming in above expectations and pointing to the strongest improvement in 18 months. That was a welcome piece of good news, following a difficult February reporting season littered with cautious comments from management teams. In contrast, business confidence measures have rebounded strongly, which seems out of…