The week ahead – The report that could determine the Fed’s next move

It’ll be a holiday-shortened week in the US, with markets closed for Labor Day on Monday. Investors will be focused on Friday’s August CPI report, which is the last major inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision the following week.

The other key event of the week will be the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision on Thursday, where a 0.25% hike in the policy rate is expected.

On the political front, the US Republican Party will hold its first midterm national convention in Dallas on Wednesday and Thursday, with President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance to deliver speeches.

Central banks will be on the speaking circuit in New Zealand and Australia. RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk will speak at a capital markets summit on Wednesday, while RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter will appear at a property summit on Tuesday and RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will appear on a current affairs show that same evening. These will be closely monitored with expectations for an RBA rate hike at the upcoming meeting having increased to 64% and with the RBNZ stance last week being interpreted as more relaxed than expected (markets see a 29% chance of a hike in October).

You can also watch Mark Lister discuss the latest economic trends on his weekly feature on BNZ Business Breakfast on TVNZ+ >

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