It’ll be a holiday-shortened week with markets closed on Monday in the US and UK. The key global release will be the PCE inflation report in the US, where the headline is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.8%, the highest since May 2023.
Inflation will be in focus across the Tasman, with the April CPI report due. Unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.5% in April (the highest since 2021) so odds for another RBA rate hike have fallen and we’ll be watching for further reaction to the CPI figures.
A massive week looms here in New Zealand. The RBNZ will deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday and while there is only an outside chance of an OCR hike, markets expect the RBNZ to lay the groundwork for moves at the following meeting. A day later we’ll get Budget 2026, which is shaping as a very challenging one to deliver in an election year.
The ANZ Business Outlook for May is due Friday, while a quarterly update from Fonterra should also include an opening payout forecast for the 2026/27 season. If all that wasn’t enough, we’ll see earnings releases from some of the local heavyweights, including Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, Infratil, Ryman Healthcare and Mainfreight.
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Mark Lister
Investment Director
Market Insights enewsletter
Keep up to date with our fortnightly Market Insights enewsletter. Our research team provide timely and regular commentary and analysis on market developments, understanding investment jargon, and the impact of current events.